The US media will make it sound like the world is a much better place in 2012 than it was in 2008 just to get their guy back in the White House. Results be dammed, what matters is holding the office. I have seen reports in CNN, CBS, NBC, and ABC talking about how things are getting better thanks to Obama’s action on the mess left by Bush. Yes, they are still blaming Bush, and yes, it’s sticking. The net result will be an election much closer than it deserves to be for what has been one of the greatest failures in governing in history.
In the next few weeks, I will go into detail into some of the areas that I’m talking about in this space. I will also not mention the astronomical failures at home, unless they are connected to a world that is far more dangerous than it’s ever been.
Before I detail the areas of trouble that come to mind, I want to address the trouble of rogue nations owning nuclear weapons. When the Soviet Union had a huge stockpile pointed at us and we had a huge stockpile pointed at them, we knew that the mutually assured self destruction would deter anyone from actually using those weapons. In those days, every nation fell into either of the two camps. We had the allied nations and the free world (OAS nations, ASEAN nations, NATO nations, etc) and the Soviets had the Soviet block (declared communist nations) and what was called non-aligned countries (pre-communist nations that were aligned with them). The danger of a nut job in North Korea or Iran owning a nuclear weapon is that since the US is seen as a week government, the potential use of that weapon on another nation no longer guarantees immediate destruction back. We need to remember that the lack of action on anything paired with a growing influence by Iran in world affairs spells nothing but trouble for the US and our true allies.
Before I start on my view of the world, I want to state that I will likely have to come back and fill in holes. There are SO many danger areas in the world right now that its virtually impossible for me to outline them all. In this blog I will only address the danger coming from our back yard in Latin America and the Caribbean. In a nutshell, Latin America is in deep trouble thanks to complete inaction by the Obama administration, and the US has lost most of its influence in the region. Latin America loves a strong US (and to complain about it) and a strong US highly benefits from a a strong Latin America. When the US is weak and Latin America goes left, economies in the region sink, trade sinks, and influence dissapears.
In order to get a good understanding of the gigantic failure that has been Latin American policy under Obama, maybe these words from President Obama at a speech before the Summit of the Americas, will explain:
As President, I’ve committed the United States to a new era of partnership with the region based on equality, shared responsibility, mutual interests and mutual respect. This reflects the reality that Latin America is a dynamic and growing region in which nations are playing a greater role in advancing prosperity and security, across the Americas and around the world. And at the upcoming Summit of the Americas, I look forward to deepening our cooperation.
Some in the region—including the Venezuelan government — have demonstrated anti-American tendencies. But to be blunt, I don’t think the people of the Americas want to live in the past because they’re interested in the future. I believe that most people in the Americas are tired of refighting old ideological battles because it doesn’t do anything to help their daily lives. Our citizens want to know what we stand for, not just what we stand against. Our citizens are focused on what our governments can do to help them realize their aspirations, like jobs that pay good wages, education for our children, security in their communities, and a future where our economies and countries are tied together more closely and where fundamental human rights are respected. That’s what our people want. That’s what we owe them.
This Carter-like misunderstanding of the role of the United States in the Americas is extremely dangerous. Here is an overview of the results of Mr. Obama’s policies.
The Americas
I would say that the US has never been in such a precarious situation in its own back yard. Here is a listing of where the problem areas are, from North to South:
Canada: Canada is not only our best friend in the world, but also our sister country. While we have been busy worrying about the freedom of enemies of our allies in the Arab world, Canada has started focusing a lot more on China and Russia. Both the Chinese and the Russians have taken controlling interests in mining companies in Canada, and the Chinese are investing heavily in Canada to extend Oil Sands projects. Canadian companies are jumping at these deals because the US is nowhere to be found. Not in investments or in consumption. The political delay of the keystone pipeline project has cost jobs on both sides of the border, and the Canadians are doing something about it by letting the Chinese invest. This is a long term issue for the US.
Mexico: Our other sister country is rapidly falling into the category of a failed state. Instead of helping terminate the root cause of the issue (the mexican drug mafia and the Zetas), the Obama administration instead adopted a policy of watching from the outside and tracking weapons movements from the US for political reasons against the second amendment. The net result was that weapons that were sold by his administration in an extremely stupid attempt to track weapons ended up killing two brave US lawman (Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry and Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agent Jamie Zapata) as well as THOUSANDS of Mexicans (with at least 200 directly linked to those guns). In the meantime, Mexico is loosing the war. The entire country is in flames. There have been dozens of Police Chiefs assassinated. This war, which should be at the forefront for the Obama administration is horrible. There are over 50,000 dead, including almost 3000 Mexican police officers. Because of Obama’s inaction on this war, the Mexican government is extremely unstable, and the friendly governments of the past 12 years are just about history. The socialist PRI party has a 2-1 margin in the polls right now.
Guatemala: The only good news in the region for the US last year was the election of a pro-democracy president in Otto Perez, after the Hugo Chavez aligned criminal former President, Alvaro Colon, tried to break the Guatemalan constitution to be re-elected thru his wife (ala Argentina). The big problem, however, is similar to Mexico’s, where the Mexican drug cartels, which were clearly aligned with Colon, start making trouble through their allies in Guatemala. President Perez has ordered the army to hit the drug gangs hard and has said that he will have an “iron fist” against narco-traffic. At the very least, Guatemala will be faced with extreme violence in the near future.
Honduras: After Honduras fought partners Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Hugo Chavez in defending its constitution against Socialist and Chavez ally former President Zelaya, the Honduras government has executed in its constitutional duty of democracy by electing President Pepe Lobo according to it’s pro-democracy constitution. Sounds great, right? Not so much. Since Obama has all but abandoned Central America, President Lobo is getting cozier with Chavez to get oil-money assistance. If you can’t beat them, buy them, right? Where will this lead is just a guest at this time.
El Salvador: In 2009, Socialist Mauricio Funes was elected President over the pro-democracy candidate. However, he has luckily governed mostly from the middle. Outside of a Solyndra type scandal, his two years in office have been quiet.
Nicaragua: Nicaragua is a case all on its own. Former and once again dictator Sandinista Daniel Ortega was elected in 2005 with 37.99% of the vote as he worked a behind the scenes deal with a former President who was in jail for corruption. In exchange for his freedom, that former President successfully split the opposition vote, giving Ortega the Presidency. Under the Nicaraguan constitution (which is similar in this regard to Mexico’s, Guatemala’s, and Honduras’), a President can only have one term. That specific constitutional point is in place to avoid the legalization of dictatorships, which have destroyed Nicaragua throughout its history. In 2011, Mr. Ortega, disregarding that constitutional point, sued the Nicaraguan government to run again. The suit was filed in a rush in a Supreme court that was at the time devoid of any non-Sandinista justices, literally sneaking the suit in as the non-Sandinista justices left, and was given an immediate approval to run. The whole process was unconstitutional because it violated Supreme Court rules, but the Sandinista led Supreme Electoral Council ran the election anyway. The election, which happened last November, was rife with total and complete fraud: at one point, the Supreme Electoral Council and the Sandinistas were denying entrance to the opposition to 20% of voting stations. Even the socialist aligned OAS (Organization of American States) said they were denied access. According to Roberto Courtney, the executive director of Ethics and Transparency (the Nicaraguan arm of Transparency International), “For the first time in more than 20 years, we had an election that failed”. The result, Ortega was reelected.
What does this mean to the US? Well, first, that the Obama administration is weak against anyone who supports Democracy. The Nicaraguan people protested by the hundreds of thousands and there was no support whatsoever from Obama, Clinton, or anyone outside the anti-communist members of the US Congress. This was widely reported to be Chavez’ test for his own 2012 re-election. Dammed the torpedoes (and the democratic constitutions), full speed ahead for Chavez driven socialism/communism. It also means that Iran gets yet another of their very friendly governments to stay longer. Iran’s madman and Ortega go way back and are more aligned than even Chavez. Worse of all, Nicaragua is about the same distance to Houston, TX as Houston is to Washington. Chavez and his ministers have taken to demeaning the US and Obama, calling him “el negrito” (the little black man), a clown and an embarrassment, the US a second rate power, etc. Now, thanks to Obama, we have at best 6 more years of the same crap, and at worse, an armed enemy at our doorstep.
Ortega, during his 80s dictatorship, became a wealthy man. However, much has been written about how the Russians did not trust him, so his fortune had to be stolen from the Nicaraguan people. During the last 6 years, Mr. Ortega has received over $2 billion from Chavez, much of it going to into his pockets. Ortega is now indeed a very wealthy man, and with his absolute power he has begun to take over businesses and properties that he has no claim to. Now Ortega is stealing from the Nicaraguan people AND being bribed by daddy Chavez.
The slow and steady destruction of democratic and free market institutions has quickly stepped up. There is a rash of government property and business appropriations since his re-election and with Oil money from new Oil finds about to rush into the country, the greed machine is about to step into high gear.
Bad times, indeed, are coming to Nicaragua.
Lastly, Mr. Ortega and Costa Rican president Socialist Laura Chinchilla hate each other and are provoking each other on the border. Likelyhood of a really stupid border war seems more and more likely every day.
Venezuela: Chavez took one of the strongest democracies in the Americas and destroyed it, but that’s a story we all know. What most people don’t know is that the once prosperous country is now broke, importing food, and the natives are starting to finally get restless. However, the elections are likely to be once again stolen. Even the head of the Army stated that the Army would not recognize any other government, regardless of the elections. This dictatorship is here to stay folks, and unlike Obama, most of us know that it’s not now nor has it been the will of the people for a great number of years. AND it won’t end with the death of Chavez.
The problems that Chavez poses for the US are many, but here are a few:
- The Chavez formula to stay in power. Chavez looks for countries where the left has a chance to win an election due to neglect from the US. Since Obama doesn’t have a Latin America policy, that majority of the countries in the region. Once that opposition is identified, Chavez invests big. Promising free refineries, free meals, and free puppies (I exaggerated with the last one), he typically “buys” the free democratic election for his crony. Once that process has been completed, he makes that country a member of ALBA, Chavez own socio-political organization of the countries he owns. Every single one of those countries votes as a block in the OAS and the UN, support Chavez causes globally, and basically act for their master. Once in power, the newly elected President starts to slowly dismantle the security anchors for democracy until they have absolute control. Once elections are upon them again, that President goes about violating the constitution of their country in the simplest, quietest manner possible. Once the constitution becomes irrelevant, they can stay and govern for life. This has been the case in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and other countries, and was tried in Honduras (almost successfully thanks to Hillary Clinton and Obama) and in Guatemala where they got nowhere. The net-net is that once they take over a country, that country’s democratic institutions are dismantled in favor of dictatorial socialism. Very few of those countries escape this cycle.
- His alliance with Cuba: While Cuba might be pretty insignificant in the US, its still a big subject in Latin America. The investment that the Soviets made thru 70 years of intervention in Latin America still has roots, and there are many Socialists and Communists thru the region. Regionally, Chavez has used Castro and Cuba to align that power base thru the region. The result has been a huge growth in influence in the region, and complete misalignment for the US. ALBA now consists of 8 countries, all under direct control of Chavez, and 4 other countries are under heavy influence. In all likelihood, Mexico will come under that influence in 2012. Bad for us, considering that there are only 20 countries in the region. The ethos of the US being weak since Obama took office is now one that is repeated thru the region. US allied governments in the region are nervous about complete abandonment as the socialist influence in the region grows. Latin America is burning and Obama is playing his fiddle.
- His alliance with Iran: Chaves and Ahmadinejad are strong allies that support each other in the global stage and off. Thanks to Chavez, Iran’s business with Latin America since 2005 has increased significantly, as has Iran’s influence. Chavez is acting like Iran’s marriage broker, guaranteeing the support of his controlled countries in the UN and other bodies while Iran provides cold hard cash to Venezuela. Iran is now trying to use Chavez to mend fences with Brazil, its biggest trading partner, after Brazil’s new President, Dilma Rousseff took office and directly taking on Iran’s human rights record.
- His alliance with China: This is a three pronged alliance. First, Venezuela sells its oil to China on a “china first” basis (over the US). An energy hungry China pays cold hard cash. Second, China gets complete access to Chavez’ friend’s Natural Resources in the region, and China pays cold hard cash. Third, they mutually protect each other from allegations of Human Rights violations and promote each other on the world stage. China, recognizing that its growth depends on a healthy US economy has chosen not to take more from Venezuela as to not starve its dumbest ally (the US under Obama), but it will happen at some point in time. From a Cato institute study on Chinese influence with Venezuela: The breakdown is as follows: $32 billion in loans, some in dollars, some in yen, not all delivered in cash; financing of $4 billion in weapons and airplanes; a promise by the Chinese to invest $40 billion in the heavy oil deposits of the Orinoco river region (not yet materialized) and some $4 billion in technical assistance in railroad, port and housing construction, as well as mining, agriculture and space technology.
If you are asking yourself why Chavez has chosen to pick so much on Obama, the answer is simple: Because he can and he must. He can because Obama is weak. He must because Chavez cannot be the anti-US leader of Latin America without being anti-US. That is one reality that Obama and his half witted diplomats will never understand.
In addition to the problem that his government possess for the US, the treaty is a lot worse for his people. Having dismantled all democratic pillars and having tight control over means of communications, there are few ways for people in the country to know what is going on outside. But the worse thing that he has done is to destroy Venezuela’s economy. Venezuela’s economic-miracle-in-reverse has had a devastating effect on Venezuelans: In a market economy, Venezuelans had access to everything, now finding products on the supermarket shelves is almost impossible. Hardest to find is cooking oil, but chicken, powered milk, sugars, and meat are also scarce. Foreign debt, in a country that has so much oil, has grown in Obama like numbers, almost tripling during his tenure. Much worse, he has taken production of Oil to 2.1 millions of barrels of oil per day from 3.15 in 2000. That huge decline is due to complete mismanagement of the oil sector, nationalization of assets, etc. This is a country in trouble.
Ecuador: Chavez bought the election for his puppet Rafael Correa in Ecuador in 2007 and he made some of the same moves as Chavez. He is slowly dismantling the democratic institutions, but it might be all for naught as the stagnant economy is making him extremely unpopular. His legacy so far is slow GDP growth despite large oil reserves. Despite the huge collections from oil, he has managed to outspend the increases due to high oil prices and has managed to create the first deficit in the country since the dollar was adopted as the country’s currency. What’s really sad is that the level of poverty reduction has significantly trailed that of market based democracies in the region by significant margins, just like Correa’s boss in Venezuela. The problem with Ecuador is the problem with ALBA. Anything that Chief Chavez says or does goes double for Correa.
Brazil: President Dilma Rousseff, a left of center President and handpicked by former President Lula, took over last year. Although the international political impact that she has had has been a very pleasant surprise, her first year had several warning signs. To describe Brazil, you now have to describe its oil fortunes. Thanks to advances in oil recovery technologies, Brazil has found itself with some very large reserves deep offshore. The country has had three GIGANTIC oil finds in very deep waters that have propelled the country to number 15 in the world. Because of these finds, HUGE investments have come into the country and the country has experienced a huge boom. The growth was so large, that the term BRIC for Brazil, Russia, India, and China was invented to showcase the similarities in these four booming economies.
President Rousseff was rumored to be much further left than Lula, but it has not worked out that way. She openly reprimanded Iran for its human rights violations while killing demonstrators last year, which was very un-leftist like (and which Obama failed to do). She has maintained the same policies of her predecessor and has not rocked the boat. However, her first year in office did experience some turmoil: the economy grew much slower, there were several scandals in her cabinet (as 6 ministers had to resign), and she was largely seen as an international political novice (which in my opinion is not necessarily bad).
Now for the bad news: Brazil, instead of the US, is widely seen as the most influential country in the region. China’s is set to surpass the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner and again, Obama’s lack of Latin America policy is to blame.
Bolivia: Evo Morales is the number one ally of Chavez, who paid for his election. Morales is not exactly what you would call an intelligent person, and has made some really stupid moves. Following his buddy Chavez’ moves in VZ, Morales announced his intent to re-nationalize hydrocarbon production, irking Petrobras, who consumes all of its gas. Petrobras has announced that it will replace Bolivian Gas with its own in 2012. Although he has been a failure, Chavez’ help while dismantling the democratic ideals of the country resulted in his re-election in 2009.
The Caribbean: To be examined at a later time, but has been the playground of Chavez and Castro.
Although left of center governments were elected in several other countries, those other countries are not yet behaving in a manner seen as anti-liberty.
As you all can see, Obama has been an abject failure in our own backyard. While not mentioned anywhere, the danger created in our own backyard is more significant than the danger created a world away. Let’s pray that we can get someone in office who understands this.